Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Best / Worst Case Martin

The Martin Tigers have always prided themselves in running offenses which match their personnel. For the past three years, that meant running out of a veer formation. In 2010, it means flinging the rock with a spread offense. The offense has looked good in early scrimmages, but question marks on the defensive side of the ball will determine whether or not Martin improves on its 2-8 record from 2009.

BEST CASE SCENARIO

In a best case scenario season Martin will get off to a hot start with a home win over Roma at Krueger Field. Roma has an all district running back in Nestor Garcia, which sounds threatening given the weakness of Martins run defense, but Roma only amassed 12 points a game in 2009. If Martins offense gets off to a high-flying start they can count this non-district contest as a win.

After a bye week Martin will play the United Longhorns at the SAC. United looks to be one of the strongest teams in district and Martin’s new offense tested early in this match up. Even in the best of Worlds, Martin is unlikely to emerge with a win. Putting the Tigers at 1-1.

A week three match up with Cigarroa will be a must win date for the Martin Tigers and should provide a fantastic contest of contrasting offenses. This was one of Martins two wins in 2009 with a final score of 30-8. In the best of worlds Martin will have found answers to its rushing D woes by week three and will stonewall Cigarroa for a similar result as last year and a 2-1 start on the season.

Martin’s week four game against United South will be an uphill battle for Martin, and even in the best of worlds they will be hard pressed to overcome the Panthers. A best case scenario would likely be a high scoring loss to put the Tigers at 2-2.

The Tigers face Eagle Pass Winn in week five on Krueger field. Eagle Pass win is the most beatable of the out-of-town programs, and in a best case scenario Martin earns the win at home. A win against Winn would advance the Tigers to 3-2 on the season.

Martin follows up their contest with one Eagle Pass school at home by facing the other Eagle Pass school on the road in week six. Even in the best of worlds it is unlikely for the Tigers to beat out the stronger of the two Eagle Pass programs, putting Martin at 3-3 on the season.

Week seven witnesses the Tigers facing off against the LBJ Wolves. The Wolves have a strong running back in Ricky Flores, but has question marks in its wide receiver corps. If the Tigers can force a lot of third and long situations upon the Wolves they just might pull off the upset to advance to 4-3 on the year.

After LBJ, Martin faces a pair of strong foes when it travels to Del Rio before returning home for a Thursday night game against Alexander. Del Rio and Alexander figure to be playoff teams this year, and neither of the schools are likely to slip up when facing Martin. Martin probably comes off of these two weeks in a best case scenario with its first losing record of the season, 4-5.

This all sets Martin up for its season finale, the grand daddy of all Laredo Rivalries, the Martin v Nixon game. In a rivalry game like this, anything can happen. In the best of worlds, that anything is a win for Martin.

The best case scenario for Martin is a year where the defense finds some answers and the offense solidifies around quarterback Luis Diaz-Deleon. A 5-5 campaign is not beyond the realm of possibility and would be a solid improvement coming off of a 2-8 year.

WORST CASE

In a year where everything goes wrong Martin would begin the season with a disastrous home loss against Roma. Roma had scouts at the Martin scrimmage; they saw how porous the Martin defense was against a dedicated running game. You can guarantee the running team from Roma will shove the ball down Martin's throat and unless Martin has made significant strides in its rush defense over the past week, Roma could literally run away with the game. 0-1.

A terrible year would witness United knocking off Martin and would follow that up with a week where Martin's run defense has yet to be fixed and Cigarroa’s large offensive line takes full advantage of it. 0-3

Starting off 0-3, a worst case year would witness that trend continuing down the line. There are no "gimme" matches on Martin's schedule and they won't be able to take a single game off. If Martin's offense fails to find consistency and if the defense doesn't learn to cope with a rushing attach then it could be a long year for the Martin Tigers with 0-10 as a worst case scenario.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN?

Installing a new offense is never easy and finding answers to defensive woes is not something you want to be doing in the final week of preseason. Martin should beat Eagle Pass win with the help of a home field advantage, and it's likely the Tigers pull off another win somewhere else along the way, but in the end strides made on offense will likely be undercut by holes in the defense for a repeat 2-8 year.

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